About Trump Signal Index

Trump Signal Index is an independent, real-time dashboard that quantifies the market impact of Donald Trump's policy actions, statements, and geopolitical moves on a single 0–100 scale — updated every 30 minutes.

What It Measures

The index captures the real-time intensity of Trump-driven market signals across four categories:

Trade & TariffsTariff announcements, trade war escalations, import/export restrictions, and retaliatory measures from other nations.
GeopoliticsMilitary posture changes, sanctions, diplomatic statements, and international crisis developments that carry market implications.
Domestic PolicyExecutive orders, regulatory shifts, federal spending decisions, and actions affecting specific industries or asset classes.
MarketsBroader equity and currency reactions to Trump actions, including sector-level moves driven by tariff and policy announcements.

How the Score Is Calculated

Each event that enters the system is assigned a raw impact score based on three independent dimensions:

1. Severity

How large is the potential economic effect? A 10% blanket tariff scores higher than a targeted sector exemption. A military ultimatum scores higher than a diplomatic statement. Severity is scored 1–5, where 5 represents a structural shift (e.g., full trade embargo, military engagement).

2. Market Breadth

How many asset classes are affected? Events touching equities, fixed income, commodities, and forex simultaneously score higher than those with single-market impact. Global supply chain disruptions receive the highest breadth scores.

3. Sentiment Direction

Is the signal escalatory or de-escalatory? Escalatory signals (new threats, deadline extensions, sanctions additions) push the index up. De-escalatory signals (deal announcements, deadline waivers, negotiation openings) pull it down. Direction is weighted against the current baseline index level to avoid overcounting during already-elevated periods.

The three dimension scores are combined with category-specific weighting, normalized across all events in the prior 24-hour window, and mapped to the 0–100 scale. The index floor is 0 (no active signals) and ceiling is 100 (maximum cross-market chaos). In practice, a score above 70 corresponds to conditions where multiple asset classes are experiencing simultaneous volatility driven by Trump actions.

Score Reference

0 – 20Calm

No significant active signals. Markets pricing normal policy noise.

21 – 40Low Activity

Minor announcements or routine tariff adjustments. Limited market impact.

41 – 60Elevated

Active policy moves with cross-market attention. Elevated options volatility typical.

61 – 80High Alert

Major escalation or multi-front policy action. Significant moves across equities and forex.

81 – 100Maximum Chaos

Structural market disruption. Crisis-level signals across all tracked categories.

Data Sources

Events are sourced from publicly available news reporting, official statements, and social media. Primary sources include:

Official government channels — White House statements, executive orders, and press briefings
Major news wires — Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, and other international newswires covering policy and markets
Financial news outlets — The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and sector-specific publications
Social media — Trump's Truth Social posts and X (Twitter) statements, which frequently serve as the first public signal of policy changes
Market data — S&P 500, relevant commodity prices (crude oil, gold), and major currency pairs affected by Trump policy moves

All source material is publicly available. Trump Signal Index does not use proprietary data feeds or non-public information.

Update Frequency

The index recalculates every 30 minutes during active market hours. During periods of elevated activity — major announcements, live press conferences, or breaking geopolitical developments — the event feed may update in near real-time. The 24-hour event window rolls continuously, meaning the index reflects only current conditions rather than accumulating historical signals.

Who Is This For?

Trump Signal Index is built for traders, portfolio managers, macro analysts, and informed investors who need a fast, consolidated read on Trump-driven market risk. Rather than parsing dozens of news feeds manually, the index provides a single number that captures the current intensity of political market pressure — useful as a dashboard check before trading sessions, during major announcements, or when assessing portfolio exposure to political risk.

Disclaimer

Trump Signal Index is an independent informational tool. It is not affiliated with Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or any financial institution. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our full Disclaimer for details.