Trump Signal IndexAbout Trump Signal Index
Trump Signal Index is an independent, real-time dashboard that quantifies the market impact of Donald Trump's policy actions, statements, and geopolitical moves on a single 0–100 scale — updated every 30 minutes.
What It Measures
The index captures the real-time intensity of Trump-driven market signals across four categories:
- Trade & TariffsTariff announcements, trade war escalations, import/export restrictions, and retaliatory measures from other nations.
- GeopoliticsMilitary posture changes, sanctions, diplomatic statements, and international crisis developments that carry market implications.
- Domestic PolicyExecutive orders, regulatory shifts, federal spending decisions, and actions affecting specific industries or asset classes.
- MarketsBroader equity and currency reactions to Trump actions, including sector-level moves driven by tariff and policy announcements.
How the Score Is Calculated
Each event is assigned two values by the system: an impact score (0–10) measuring the potential economic magnitude, and a sentiment score (−5 to +5) measuring direction and conviction. The index combines Trump's events with the market's actual reaction to them, in two components:
1. Event Score (0–60 pts)
Only events with a direct channel into markets count — tariffs, sanctions, trade, the Fed and rates, oil and energy, military action, and relations with China, Iran, Russia, Canada, and other major partners. Each is scored as |sentiment| × impactScore. The component uses the average of the five strongest events, plus a bonus for each high-intensity event (score ≥ 30), so a single major move is not diluted by routine political news. A tariff announcement with impact 8 and sentiment −4 scores 32.
2. Market Score (0–40 pts)
Measures how hard markets actually moved in the same session: the size of the S&P 500's move, the rise in the VIX volatility index, and the size of the move in oil. The market component is scaled by the Event Score, so market swings on days with little Trump-driven news (earnings, data releases) add little to the index. On weekends, holidays, and before the opening bell, it uses a typical level of market stress until trading resumes.
Events are grouped by US trading session — from one market close to the next — so news that breaks after the close counts toward the session that reacts to it. Weekend news rolls into Monday. The two components sum to a score capped at 100. In practice, a score above 80 reflects sessions where Trump-driven events and a sharp cross-market reaction coincide.
Score Reference
No significant active signals. Markets pricing normal policy noise.
Minor announcements or routine tariff adjustments. Limited market impact.
Active policy moves with cross-market attention. Elevated options volatility typical.
Major escalation or multi-front policy action. Significant moves across equities and forex.
Structural market disruption. Crisis-level signals across all tracked categories.
Data Sources
Events are sourced from publicly available news reporting, official statements, and social media. Primary sources include:
- Official government channels — White House statements, executive orders, and press briefings
- Major news wires — Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, and other international newswires covering policy and markets
- Financial news outlets — The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and sector-specific publications
- Social media — Trump's Truth Social posts and X (Twitter) statements, which frequently serve as the first public signal of policy changes
- Market data — S&P 500, relevant commodity prices (crude oil, gold), and major currency pairs affected by Trump policy moves
All source material is publicly available. Trump Signal Index does not use proprietary data feeds or non-public information.
Update Frequency
The index recalculates every 30 minutes during active market hours. During periods of elevated activity — major announcements, live press conferences, or breaking geopolitical developments — the event feed may update in near real-time. The 24-hour event window rolls continuously, meaning the index reflects only current conditions rather than accumulating historical signals.
Who Is This For?
Trump Signal Index is built for traders, portfolio managers, macro analysts, and informed investors who need a fast, consolidated read on Trump-driven market risk. Rather than parsing dozens of news feeds manually, the index provides a single number that captures the current intensity of political market pressure — useful as a dashboard check before trading sessions, during major announcements, or when assessing portfolio exposure to political risk.
About
Trump Signal Index is maintained by Workoffy Research, an independent research team tracking the real-world market impact of Trump's policy actions and geopolitical moves.
For inquiries, corrections, or press: team@workoffy.com
Disclaimer
Trump Signal Index is an independent informational tool. It is not affiliated with Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or any financial institution. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our full Disclaimer for details.