On October 16 Trump signed an executive order waiving some of the sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions in the Lindsey Graham Russia and Iran sanctions law, Reuters reported. The law was two days from taking effect.
What the law does:
- Tariffs of up to 500% on imports from Russia
- Sanctions on senior Russian officials and Russian banks
- Sanctions on the shadow fleet, the tankers that carry Russian oil around Western restrictions
It also contains an exit. The president may waive some measures by certifying to Congress in writing that doing so serves the US national interest. Trump used that clause. The reports did not specify which measures the order covers.
Two Reactions
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy for economic affairs, called the waiver a truly significant and historic moment. Had the law taken effect as written, he argued, it would have hit the US economy and world markets first. US-Russian economic dialogue and peace efforts will continue, he said.
Zelensky saw the same move from the other side. Gaps in US sanctions, less pressure on the aggressor, and money for Putin, he wrote, will only encourage Russia to keep attacking. He urged European allies to keep up their own pressure on Moscow.
The Paperwork Behind the Diesel Deal
The waiver came with a second disclosure. The Treasury authorized trade in Russian diesel on October 9 — the same day as Trump’s call with Putin.
When Trump announced that Russia would ship 300,000 tons of diesel immediately and 500,000 more in November, the open question was whether Washington would lift its own restrictions on Russian petroleum products. It already had.
Eight Days
Put the eight days in order:
- October 9: The Putin call. Trump announces Russian diesel; the Treasury authorizes the trade.
- October 9–10: Trump says Ukraine needs a new leader.
- October 11: Trump declares an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE” that Moscow says it never agreed to.
- October 15: Ukraine strikes the Ryazan refinery. On Newsmax, Trump says he doesn’t much like Zelensky and finds him harder to deal with than Putin.
- October 16: The sanctions waiver.
The Senator Who Isn’t There
The law was led by Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who died suddenly in July. A Republican senator for more than two decades and a Trump ally, he visited Kyiv to meet Zelensky shortly before his death and was the center of the Senate’s hard line on Russia. Analysts say that without him, the administration has felt free to slow the law down in favor of practical gains.
A month ago Trump signed a law built to cut Russia’s oil income. In eight days, every lever has moved the other way. Russian diesel is licensed. Ukraine is told it needs a new leader. Ukraine’s refinery strikes are called a disgrace while Russia’s 360-drone attacks go unmentioned in the president’s reported comments. And now the law’s penalties are partly waived before they begin. The motive has been the same at each step: fuel prices before November 3. The difference is that the diesel license and the waiver are policy, not words. They change who can buy Russian oil, ship it, and finance it, and on what terms. That is what Dmitriev means by historic.
The Other Side
Congress wrote the waiver into the law, so using it is what the law allows. Tariffs of up to 500% would have reached far beyond Russia, hitting American importers and trading partners, and some of that cost would have landed on US prices weeks before an election. The waiver is partial and can be reversed, which keeps it available as leverage if Moscow stalls on a peace deal. And Europe’s own sanctions on Russia are unchanged.
For markets, this is the first hard policy shift on Russia in the sequence. Easing sanctions risk for buyers of Russian oil and for companies that deal with the shadow fleet should narrow the discount on Russian crude and let more Russian crude and diesel move, a modest bearish pressure on oil and diesel prices at the margin. It is supportive for Russian assets and for the refiners in India and Turkey that buy Russian crude. For Europe, Washington and Brussels are now running different Russia regimes, which complicates compliance for European companies and puts more of the burden of supporting Ukraine on European budgets — supportive for European defense names. Watch for the full text of the order, any pushback from Senate Republicans who backed Graham’s law, the EU’s next sanctions package, and whether Ukraine answers with more refinery strikes. Those strikes are the main thing standing between the waiver and lower diesel prices.
The Order (Oct 16)
Waives some sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions in the Graham law
The Law
Up to 500% tariffs; sanctions on officials, banks, and the shadow fleet
Timing
Two days before the law took effect; 18 days before the midterms
Kremlin (Dmitriev)
A truly significant and historic moment
Zelensky
Money for Putin will only encourage more attacks; Europe must keep pressure
Also Revealed
Treasury authorized Russian diesel trades on Oct 9, the day of the Putin call
