Russian Diesel Becomes a Republican Problem: Senate Candidates in Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa Break With Trump Two Weeks Out

Trump’s turn toward Russia on fuel is now a problem for his own party’s candidates.

The Wall Street Journal reported on October 18 that Republicans are being asked, in interviews and at town halls, why the US should go easy on Vladimir Putin now. The questions follow two decisions: the deal for Russian diesel, and the partial waiver of the Graham sanctions law two days before it took effect.

The timing makes it worse. Cost of living is the central issue of the midterms, and diesel prices remain high. Republicans who were uneasy about easing sanctions are also not yet seeing the economic payoff the move was supposed to bring.

Congress passed the Graham law last month. It includes tougher sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. Trump signed it on September 18, then suspended parts of it on October 16.

Three Senate Races

Every example in the Journal’s report was a Republican in a race polling close to even.

• Michigan — Mike Rogers, running against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. On CNN on October 18, Rogers said he would not have taken the president’s position and would have voted for the sanctions law. He would support a better way to bring down diesel prices, he said, but is somewhat skeptical this one will work the way the administration hopes. Putin, he added, should not be given an inch.
• Alaska — Senator Dan Sullivan, seeking a third term against Democrat Mary Peltola. On October 17 Sullivan said he would urge Trump not to buy Russian diesel. Instead, he said, the US should expand Alaska’s energy production and keep strengthening the military — the hard-power tools Putin understands best.
• Iowa — Ashley Hinson, running against Democrat Josh Turek. At a debate last week, Hinson said gasoline and diesel prices need to come down, but she does not think the way to do it is a deal with Russia.

Sullivan’s answer has a history. Trump campaigned for him in September by promoting Alaska LNG, and as recently as October 14 he was announcing Korean and Taiwanese money for the project. Sullivan is now offering Alaska’s energy as the alternative to Moscow’s.

The stakes are the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority. Alaska and Iowa are Republican seats. Michigan is a Democratic seat Republicans hoped to take.

The Speaker’s Hedge

House Speaker Mike Johnson rarely departs from Trump in public. On Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, he came close.

Congress passed the law weeks ago by an overwhelming margin, Johnson said, and everyone knows Putin cannot be trusted. He has told White House staff to discuss it and to weigh carefully the unintended consequences it could cause. He added that he knows the president is evaluating the issue, as he does everything else.

The Defense

Not every Republican is keeping distance. Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, who is not up for reelection this year, defended the decision on NBC’s Meet the Press. The president, he said, is striking a delicate balance between keeping pressure on Russia and helping Americans — continuing support for Ukraine while trying to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

Julian Zelizer, a historian at Princeton, told the Journal that the diesel diplomacy risks backfiring. It can leave the impression that the White House has neither a workable plan to lower fuel costs nor an effective policy to calm the fighting in Ukraine. The dilemma for many Republicans on the ballot, he said, is that the party’s leader demands their loyalty while being the biggest source of their electoral weakness.

The Russia turn was supposed to help Republicans by lowering fuel prices before November 3. Two weeks out, the political cost has arrived and the price relief has not. The first Russian tranche equals less than two days of US diesel exports, US diesel still averages around $6.28 a gallon, and Ukraine’s Ryazan strike pushed supply the other way. Candidates in close races have settled on the same formula: lower prices, but not through Russia. That is a break on foreign policy, the area Republicans have most consistently left to Trump. It also shows the limit of pre-election energy moves. A supply measure markets see as small, tied to an adversary most voters distrust, brings the controversy before it brings the savings.

The Other Side

Distance in a close race is ordinary campaigning, not a policy revolt. None of the three candidates has proposed reversing the waiver, and Congress has not moved against it. Rogers himself said he would back a better plan to cut diesel prices. For many swing voters, the price at the pump may matter more than sanctions policy, and if diesel falls before the vote, the argument fades. Lankford’s case — pressure on Moscow and relief at home at the same time — is the one the White House will make through Election Day.