Plywood, Paper, and Boxes Out; Valves and Carpet In: Trump Reshuffles His Canada Tariffs Eleven Days Before the Vote — to Help Susan Collins, the WSJ Says

On October 23 the White House said Trump had signed a proclamation adjusting the 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods. The changes take effect October 30, four days before the November 3 midterms.

| Coming off the list | Going on the list | |---|---| | Plywood | Some valves | | Some paper products | Carpets | | Certain machinery and refrigeration equipment | Waste-related products | | Packaging boxes | |

The tariffs date from August. After trade talks collapsed on August 21, the US imposed tariffs of up to 50% on about $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canada answered with its own tariffs of up to 50% on C$27.6 billion of US goods, and Trump followed with outright import bans on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and large motorcycles.

The Maine Connection

The Wall Street Journal had reported that the administration planned to drop some of the tariffs to help Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican seeking reelection.

Canada is Maine’s largest trading partner. Collins has pressed the White House to ease the burden the tariffs put on the state’s industries and consumers. Several items coming off the list — plywood, paper, packaging — are inputs for wood and paper businesses that matter in Maine, and refrigeration equipment matters to any business that ships perishable food.

The Journal said the change could also help Republican candidates in Michigan and New Hampshire, two other states with heavy trade across the Canadian border.

Not a Rollback

The headline is tariff relief. The proclamation is a swap. Some goods leave the list, others join it, and the 50% rate stays. Canadian valves, carpets, and waste-related products will cost US buyers more from October 30. The White House has not said whether the total value of goods covered goes up or down.

The trade war itself is unchanged. Canada’s retaliation is still in force, and the 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts, and steel are still set for January 2027.

This is the latest in a run of pre-election policy moves aimed at specific prices and specific races. In October alone: Russian diesel licensed and the Graham sanctions law partly waived to bring down fuel prices; no Iran strikes before November 3; and now a tariff list redrawn around a Senate seat. The Russia moves became a burden for Republicans: Senate candidates in Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa broke with Trump over them. The Canada move works the other way: it hands a vulnerable senator a concrete win she asked for. The lesson for anyone exposed to US trade policy is that tariff lists now move with the electoral map. That cuts both ways. What can be removed for an election can be restored after it.

The Other Side

Tariff lists are adjusted all the time, and removing duties on inputs such as plywood, packaging, and refrigeration equipment lowers costs for American manufacturers and food businesses whatever the motive. Responding to a senator who represents affected industries is how trade policy is supposed to work. The additions may reflect specific complaints from US producers of those goods. And keeping the 50% rate and the auto and steel deadline intact preserves leverage for any return to talks with Ottawa.